Weekly Economic Update 06-05-26: ISM Manufacturing & Services; Factory Orders; JOLTS Report; and May Employment

The manufacturing and service sectors appear to be in good shape, but they are doing it without increasing employment...at least according to the surveys.

The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgia Institute of Technology or the Georgia Board of Regents. 

Before we get into all the economic data of the week, I want to mention that today is a very special day for me personally, as it represents a major milestone along my life’s journey. Our lives are often defined by small, everyday occurrences that we experience and too often take for granted. Then, occasionally, we have major events in our lives that represent a transition from one stage to another.

Today is one such milestone for me. This evening, my son will be getting married, and I will go from only having two sons to having two sons and a daughter. And I couldn’t be happier.

As was the case when I was married back in the early 1990s, the young couple is starting their life together in a very uncertain economic environment. Of course, we don’t have a recession right now as we did back then (at least not yet), but there is no question that the economy is slowing. With GDP posting only 1.6% in the first quarter during a time when everyone was getting larger-than-expected tax refund checks…that's not an indicator of a strong economy.

Back in the 1990s, a friend of mine created his own economic indicator series…the “junk-for-sale-on-the-side-of-the-road” index (or JFSOTSOTR for short). As he drove to work along the same route each day, he noted that more and more people were selling their stuff along the side of the road…cars, trucks, boats, RVs, furniture, etc. As the economy declined, the number of things for sale on the side of the road increased in an almost direct inverse relationship.

When he told me about this years ago, I started noticing it myself. And sure enough, when the economy slows, JFSOTSOTR rises. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. It happens every time. It really seems to be a great economic indicator for the local economy.

I bring it up because recently, he mentioned to me that he has noticed that the JFSOTSOTR index has been on the rise. I have asked him to start collecting the data in a more formal way, and perhaps I can start reporting on the JFSOTSOTR index on a regular basis. Not sure at this point how to formalize that, but that is what my AI agent is for!

Now on to what we learned this week…