Weekly Economic Update 07-10-26: ISM Manufacturing & Services; Consumer Credit; and Existing Home Sales

Home prices continue to rise, and consumers take a breather from relying on plastic.

The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgia Institute of Technology or the Georgia Board of Regents. 

I have had an amazing week of vacation down at Cape San Blas, Florida. If you have never been, let me tell you…there is NOTHING to do. Which is EXACTLY what I needed. Either you sit on the beach enjoying the sun and a good book, or you sit by the pool enjoying the same. Beach - pool - back to the beach - back to the pool. Then watching the sunset, playing games with family, and then doing it again the next day. Apply a lot of sunscreen (or aloe if you failed on the sunscreen) and relax. Just what the doctor ordered.

How does this tie in to the economy? Not sure it does, but I will say this…if you are looking for some beach property, there is a LOT of it available in Cape San Blas. As I sit on the front porch of our rental house writing this, I can see no fewer than three “For Sale” signs. Up and down the main road, these signs cluster on nearly every corner. Looks like a buyer’s market to me! I bet the prices aren’t rising here! Of course, that may be because beach property insurance has gone stupid crazy in Florida, or maybe because your house is likely to get wiped out once every 10 or so years, or maybe people are just out of money and need cash, but whatever the reason, if you are in the market, there is ample supply!

I know regular readers have read this before, but I really did intend to take a break this week. But I was sitting here early one morning, mid-week, and decided to write. So, it will be short this week, but here are a few notes on what little economic data was released…

Existing Home Sales

Speaking of the housing market, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released data on existing home sales for the month of June (full release here). Sales ran at a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) — down 2.4% from May, though still up 2.8% from a year ago (which, frankly, isn’t saying much). Expectations were for roughly 4.20 million, so this is a clear miss, and it gives back most of last month’s jump. Existing-home sales have now been stuck near a 4-million annual pace since 2023, well below the historic norm closer to 5.2 million. One warm month, it turns out, does not make a spring.

Prices, of course, won’t drop. June’s median of $440,600 (NSA) is up 1.8% y/y — a fresh all-time high and the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. That is a very different picture from new home sales, where the median was flat from a year ago.

Interestingly, homes are still moving quickly, at a median 28 days on market, barely changed from May — so this isn’t soft demand meeting soft prices. It is fewer sales at ever-higher prices. With the 30-year mortgage back up near 6.5%, the affordability math isn’t fixing itself any time soon.